As the daily coronavirus death toll continues its upward trend, it will not come as a surprise to people across the UK that things are going to get worse before they get better. With other countries more advanced in their coronavirus journey, it makes it easier for the UK to imagine just how awful things might get here. But behind the government’s desperate and valiant attempt to save lives, stalks a growing concern over how we move on from the economic wreckage that the virus will leave in its wake.
Other than President Trump, no national leaders want to discuss it, perhaps preferring to deal with one crisis at a time. Meanwhile, as the lockdowns continue, the world economy is relentlessly moving from certain recession to a likely depression — something that will leave even more hardship and misery, particularly as so many western economies are weighed down by massive accrued and new debt. We must find a strategy to move on from our current economic trajectory, particularly as the deputy chief medical officer, Dr Jenny Harries, said at the weekend that the lockdown might need more time to deliver the turning of the tide.
One wonders how long the public could stomach more of this, but more importantly where the economy will be if an extension happens. Extended lockdown would end any notion of a speedy bounce-back or V-shaped recession. All governments dealing with this virus are on the horns of a terrible dilemma: if they continue lengthy lockdowns the economy will weaken beyond any easy or straightforward repair; if they do not, more people — perhaps many more — may die. A stark and unpalatable choice, but not one we can shirk for much longer.
However, perhaps there is a way to begin rebooting and rebuilding the economy whilst minimising the risk to life. It involves keeping limited lockdown restrictions for some, social distancing where possible, and a continued emphasis on employees working from home for now. But, crucially, it emphasises the beginning of a return to normal life through a combination of deploying technology and using, some would say, draconian government powers to track the health of its citizens.
It would begin as soon as the government had put the appropriate measures in place, as part of a three-step process bringing together many of the virus mitigation practices that have worked well elsewhere in the world.
Step one is to test, test and test again for the virus, so we identify who has it and who does not. It is the fastest way to re-establish any significant economic activity, because you can find those with the virus quickly and isolate them. But it needs a new approach, with simple, 20-minute self-testing by the public, in addition to government testing. There would need to be millions of self-tests every day, not just among key workers. Many individuals and companies are ready and willing to take responsibility for themselves, their family and employees, and can be trusted to do so. These self-tests do exist, and some have shown to be over 99 per cent effective in detecting the virus. Government must immediately secure enough of these kits and co-ordinate distribution so that there is easy access for people that need to work away from home.
Step two requires people to download a new government mobile app, which would be able to do two things: access their location and assess their daily coronavirus status. There would be red, amber and green categories on the app which would have to be updated every morning, preferably after a self-test. If you don’t sign up or update your app you remain under lockdown rules. Red signifies someone has the virus; amber means they have had recent contact with a Covid-19 patient or are in self-isolation needing an immediate test; and green means either they have had the virus, self-tested that day, or have no symptoms or recent contacts with it.
All those who are categorised as vulnerable would be automatically placed in the red category, activating a local wraparound package to support their needs. Through the collection of data, contacts with infected people could be monitored and dealt with quickly. The app would provide a daily questionnaire to assist with evaluating an individual’s virus-free status. Being in the green category would allow an individual free movement to shop, eat out, exercise and go to work as normal, but not travel internationally. International travel could only be included under an international agreement to test all passengers — but even this should be possible with international co-operation.
Step three recognises that there is still more that can be done to make people feel safe in public and in workspaces, restoring normal daily life. Temperature checkers would need to be introduced at, for example, transport hubs, shopping centres, cinemas, big employers such as in the public sector, and anywhere social distancing can’t be practised easily. There are handheld thermal camera phones that can be deployed immediately to detect and inform individuals of higher than normal temperatures, spotting early signs of illness.
Everywhere from reception areas to police forces could be fitted with this technology. I understand there is also now a breathalyser test for the virus. Like temperature readings, these can act as a further safeguard for people going about their everyday business.
The bulk of the population can physically deal with the coronavirus. By continuing to protect and support the vulnerable, hugely increasing testing, giving people more responsibility for themselves, their families and employees, and bringing technology to bear, we can allow the economy to recover sooner and recession to be managed better. It is understandable that some might fundamentally object to the state tracking their location and knowing their health status. But it would be for a short period, better than an economic depression, and currently the only exit out of a devastating Catch-22 scenario.
This article was first published in The Times on 31st March 2020. See: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/test-test-test-the-way-to-exit-lockdown-and-reboot-the-economy-blxwkf68x