It cannot be denied that the Prime Minister is having a very bad week.
A row at the start of the week, after backing down on manifesto commitments no one would have to sell their home to pay for social care, and accusations his new solution will be unfair on poorer people whose homes are worth less, is now looking like the least of his worries. Boris Johnson’s speech on Tuesday to the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), which could have been an opportunity to trumpet the positive future ahead for Britain’s post-Brexit economy, instead turned into a disaster as he stumbled over his words, lost his place, spent 30 seconds apologising while shuffling pages, made revving car noises, appeared to compare himself to Moses, and veered well off topic in a far too long adulation of Peppa Pig World. Then yesterday, his administration’s failure to end the stream of migrants crossing the English Channel in dinghies – over 24,700 have made it to the UK so far this year – meant 27 of them drowned, a tragedy that has not only brought Johnson’s inability to deal with the issue into sharp focus, but which has also led to yet another huge row with France.
If opinion polls are to be believed, the PM’s popularity has been slipping since hitting 48% in May, the last time Johnson’s approval outweighed his disapproval. It has slumped considerably since the latest second jobs and lobbying scandal which forced the resignation of Owen Patterson, the MP for North Shropshire. This week, YouGov’s latest poll revealed just 29% of respondents believe Johnson is doing well as PM – a record low since he took office. 64% believe he is doing badly in his role.
News this morning that senior Tory donors are keeping ‘their cheque books closed’ in protest at Johnson’s tax rises – notably the hikes in corporation tax and national insurance which mean the UK has the highest tax burden in 70 years – will send additional shock waves through the party hierarchy, especially as a growing number of donors, including former party treasurer Michael Spencer and businessman Alexander Temerko, are now publicly criticising his high-tax policies.
In terms of pressure on Boris Johnson’s leadership however, the more serious issue for him personally is the noticeable increase in discontented mutterings and leaks to the press from within his own ranks. After the CBI speech debacle, an unnamed Tory MP told the FT: “Bojo has lost his mojo…there’s a mixture of anger and despair but the real frustration is with the [No. 10] operation, it’s amateurish.” Meanwhile, allies of Chancellor Rishi Sunak are said to have told The Times the country’s economics guru has become increasingly “frustrated” with his next-door neighbour and his “chaotic” operations inside Number 10. Now, he is said to be facing the biggest crisis in his career after a dozen Tory MPs sent in ‘no confidence’ letters to the influential 1922 committee demanding a leadership contest to oust him.
Of course, such back-stabbing shenanigans may well cement party loyalty around the beleaguered PM, and a dozen unconfirmed reports of letters are a long way off the 54 currently required from Tory MPs before any meaningful action can be taken. Still, it is difficult not to concur with the words of one unnamed senior MP who is said to have told The Sun: “There is real anger. He has until Spring to get back on track or he will be in real trouble.”
Political Insight’s message to business: Boris is in trouble but by historical standards, he’s in a strong place and has time to reboot his administration well within the next 12 months and before the earliest possible slot for a General Election in 2023.